Countdown to the Amazon climate talks: What to expect at COP30

In just a few days, the UN-backed climate conference, known as COP30, will take place in Belém, Brazil — on the edge of the Amazon rainforest.

To understand what’s at stake, Conservation News spoke with Florence Laloe, climate policy lead at Conservation International, and Mauricio Bianco, who leads the organization’s Brazil program — both Brazilians whose careers have been devoted to protecting the forest and the people who depend on it.

On the eve of the summit, they see a rare opportunity to bring the world’s attention back to where the fight for climate action began — and to the country whose forests could help decide its future.

Why is COP30 in Belém such a critical moment?

Mauricio Bianco: The global climate movement began here in Brazil in 1992, at the Rio Earth Summit — and now it’s returning home, to the Amazon itself. We are calling it the “Amazon COP,” or even the “Nature COP.” It’s a moment for the world to see what’s at stake through the eyes of Brazil — to see that protecting nature means protecting ourselves.

Florence Laloe: This summit is more than symbolic — it’s also a turning point. The next five years are critical for the land sector — meaning our forests, mangroves, farms and ecosystems. If deforestation and forest degradation continues at today’s rate, the Amazon could cross a tipping point where it starts to dry and turn into savanna. Once that happens, we lose not just trees, but rainfall, biodiversity and the way of life of millions of Brazilians who depend on the forest.

Protecting the forest isn’t just about saving trees — it’s about preventing a collapse that would release vast amounts of carbon and disrupt weather patterns across the globe.

How can the world prevent this?

FL: It’s going to take a lot of money, and the scale of the investment required is massive. We need about US$ 1.3 trillion every year until 2030 to confront climate change — not just to cut emissions, but to help people adapt, and forests would require US$ 300 billion by 2030 and US$ 498 billion by 2050. Public funds and philanthropy can’t do it alone.

MB: That trillion-dollar price tag can sound abstract, but it’s really about everyday realities: building roads that won’t wash away in floods, restoring mangroves that protect fishing villages, keeping rivers flowing so farmers have water for crops. This money helps protect livelihoods and stability — it’s about people, not just numbers. And it’s way cheaper to invest in preventing than in repairing afterwards.

FL: At COP30, countries need to agree on a financial roadmap — where this money will come from, how it’s distributed and how it reaches those most affected by climate change. That includes reforming development banks and debt structures so that climate finance doesn’t push developing nations further into debt. Right now, too little funding goes toward nature and adaptation — helping people live with the changes already underway. A recent UN report found that support for adaptation actually fell in 2023, even as needs continue to soar — by some estimates, the gap between what’s needed and what’s available is more than tenfold. We need to close that gap by investing not only in cutting emissions, but in helping communities cope with the impacts already here.

What new funding ideas are emerging to keep forests standing?

MB: There’s one in particular that I’m very positive about — and, of course, like many things at COP, it has a long name: the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, or TFFF.

Tropical forests like the Amazon store massive amounts of carbon. When they’re cut down, that carbon is released into the atmosphere, fueling climate change. The idea behind the TFFF is to flip that equation: participating countries will be rewarded for keeping forests standing and healthy.

FL: It’s an innovative idea because it offers steady, predictable funding that’s not tied to political cycles or volatile markets. Forests already generate real economic value — from securing clean water to providing habitats for the pollinators that help feed the world — but the TFFF helps reward that value. The facility aims to raise about US$ 125 billion from global investors. That money would generate annual returns of roughly US$ 4 billion, which are then paid to countries that successfully keep their forests intact.

MB: And crucially, the mechanism ensures that at least 20 percent of those funds go directly to Indigenous Peoples and local communities. These are the people who have protected places like the Amazon for centuries and are among the best at keeping nature intact.

A major topic at COP30 will be updating the rules around carbon markets, but most people don’t even know what that is in the first place. Can you unpack it?

FL: Essentially, carbon markets are trading mechanisms in which carbon credits are sold and bought by countries and companies. They create financial incentives for communities and countries to protect forests and other ecosystems that store carbon — preventing emissions that would otherwise be released through deforestation or degradation. Not all of these solutions come from nature; some credits are tied to clean energy or technology that cuts emissions.

• Further reading: What on Earth is a 'carbon offset'?

MB: But many of the most effective ones do. And when they’re done right, that funding reaches communities — supporting people who are protecting the forest every day. It can provide income to Indigenous territories, riverine villages and small farmers, while also funding education, health care and better forest monitoring. Without carbon markets, we simply won’t have the scale of finance needed to protect forests and support the people who rely on them.

FL: The catch is the rules. Under the Paris Agreement, Article 6 sets the framework for how carbon markets operate internationally. Current proposals risk sidelining nature-based solutions like reforestation or mangrove restoration. That would be a huge mistake. A carbon market that ignores nature doesn’t just undermine climate goals — it undermines economies and the communities who rely on healthy forests.

At COP30, Conservation International is calling for a balance between environmental integrity and economic feasibility with clear, science-based rules that recognize the full value of nature and ensure transparency, fairness and strong participation from Indigenous peoples and local communities.

What do you want people to take away from COP30?

MB: This is about legacy. As Brazilians, we’re proud that the Amazon is part of who we are — but it’s also part of who everyone is. We want to look our children and grandchildren in the eye and say that we acted as a global community, and we acted in time.

FL: For me, it’s about urgency and possibility. Our window to prevent runaway climate change is closing fast. The next five years will determine the next hundred. There is no life on Earth without nature — and the world is looking to Brazil to show that a standing forest is worth more than one that’s cut down. COP30 is our chance to turn that truth into action.

Will McCarry is the content director at Conservation International. Want to read more stories like this?  Sign up for email updates. Also, please consider supporting our critical work.