Modeling climate adaptive habitat connectivity for conservation planning in Colombia

To remain effective under global change, conservation decisions must anticipate shifting climates, species responses to climate change and the dispersal pathways needed to track suitable climate. Yet most assessments of ecological connectivity do not consider how the landscape will change, or, if they do, they only consider a single future time point, which may miss key intermediate states and stepwise pathways for climate-driven dispersal. We develop and apply a trajectory-based, climate adaptive connectivity framework for 294 terrestrial mammals in Colombia that are projected to retain accessible future habitat. Here, climate adaptive connectivity refers to potential connectivity driven by changing climatic suitability across time. We replicated expert-validated species distribution models (SDMs) from BioModelos to estimate baseline and future habitat suitability (1970–2000; 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585). For each species, we ran omnidirectional circuit theory connectivity models (Omniscape) with species-specific dispersal distances and habitat suitability-based conductance surface. We projected connectivity across multiple future time steps and then accumulated the resulting connectivity values at each endpoint. This multi-step assessment revealed transient connectivity barriers in central Colombia that repeatedly disrupt potential climate-tracking pathways but are missed by endpoint-only assessments. We then classified the aggregated connectivity of all species into operational types representing different modes of climate connectivity support to inform national action. Under SSP126, areas supporting and impeding connectivity interlace and cluster in northwestern Colombia, likely reflecting Andean climatic gradients, and remain relatively stable. Under higher emissions, well-connected zones contract toward the Andes and barrier hotspots shift, indicating that a central hotspot linking the Colombian Amazon and Andes may transition from facilitator to barrier. Compared with endpoint-only single-step assessments, our multi-step approach reveals transient yet essential linkages that emerge during intermediate periods and may otherwise be missed, providing actionable guidance on both land protection and restoration.